人也能"制造"地震嗎：被低估的誘發(fā)地震

一、水的重量與水的壓力

1967 年 12 月，印度西部的柯依那水庫(kù)(Koyna)附近發(fā)生 6.3 級(jí)地震，造成嚴(yán)重傷亡。此前該地區(qū)幾乎沒(méi)有強(qiáng)震記錄，而水庫(kù)大壩在 1962 年建成蓄水后，周邊小震便逐年增多。這次事件成為水庫(kù)誘發(fā)地震研究的經(jīng)典案例。

機(jī)制并不神秘，可以分成兩部分。

第一是重量。 上億噸水壓在地表，會(huì)改變地下巖層的應(yīng)力狀態(tài)。但這一項(xiàng)其實(shí)影響有限——水柱造成的壓力增量，與地下幾公里處巖石本身的巨大圍壓相比并不算大。

第二才是關(guān)鍵：水的滲透。 水沿著裂隙滲入斷層帶，抬高了巖石孔隙中的流體壓力。斷層能否滑動(dòng)，取決于摩擦阻力，而摩擦阻力正比于有效正應(yīng)力——即壓緊斷層兩盤(pán)的力，減去孔隙流體向外頂開(kāi)的壓力。孔隙壓力升高，等于給斷層面做了"液壓潤(rùn)滑",原本被牢牢鎖住的斷層會(huì)變得容易滑動(dòng)。

打個(gè)比方：把一本厚書(shū)壓在桌上很難推動(dòng)，但如果往書(shū)底下注入一層高壓氣體讓它微微浮起，輕輕一推就滑走了。地下發(fā)生的正是類(lèi)似的事。

這里有個(gè)至關(guān)重要的前提：人類(lèi)并沒(méi)有憑空創(chuàng)造能量。能被誘發(fā)的斷層，本來(lái)就已經(jīng)積累了接近臨界的構(gòu)造應(yīng)力，人類(lèi)活動(dòng)只是提前扣動(dòng)了扳機(jī)。因此學(xué)界更常用"觸發(fā)(triggered)"而非"制造"來(lái)描述。這也意味著，誘發(fā)地震的規(guī)模上限，仍由當(dāng)?shù)財(cái)鄬颖旧淼某叨葲Q定。

二、從注水到壓裂：更多的人類(lèi)扳機(jī)

深井注水是最早被確證的原因。上世紀(jì) 60 年代，美國(guó)丹佛落基山兵工廠將廢液注入深井處置，附近隨即出現(xiàn)成群小震，停止注入后地震隨之減少——注入速率與地震頻度的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系清晰得幾乎像一次受控實(shí)驗(yàn)。

規(guī)模最大的案例出現(xiàn)在美國(guó)俄克拉荷馬州。 該州歷史上地震稀少，但 2009 年后隨著油氣開(kāi)采伴生廢水的大規(guī)模回注，3 級(jí)以上地震數(shù)量激增至每年數(shù)百次，2016 年更發(fā)生了 5.8 級(jí)地震。監(jiān)管部門(mén)此后強(qiáng)制限制回注量與壓力，地震頻度顯著回落。值得注意的是，主因是廢水回注，而非公眾印象中的壓裂本身——回注量往往比壓裂用水大得多，且持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)。

水力壓裂同樣能觸發(fā)地震，只是通常規(guī)模較小。2019 年，四川榮縣在頁(yè)巖氣作業(yè)期間接連發(fā)生數(shù)次地震并造成人員傷亡與房屋受損，當(dāng)?shù)仉S即宣布暫停開(kāi)采作業(yè)。

地?zé)衢_(kāi)發(fā)也曾出事。2017 年韓國(guó)浦項(xiàng)發(fā)生 5.4 級(jí)地震，是韓國(guó)現(xiàn)代記錄中破壞最嚴(yán)重的地震之一;后續(xù)調(diào)查認(rèn)為，與當(dāng)?shù)卦鰪?qiáng)型地?zé)嵯到y(tǒng)(EGS)的高壓注水關(guān)系密切，該項(xiàng)目被終止。2006 年瑞士巴塞爾的類(lèi)似項(xiàng)目也因誘發(fā)有感地震而叫停。

采空與抽采則是另一類(lèi)：荷蘭格羅寧根氣田因長(zhǎng)期抽采導(dǎo)致地層沉降與頻繁淺源地震，房屋大面積開(kāi)裂，最終迫使這座歐洲最大氣田提前停產(chǎn)。

誘發(fā)地震有一個(gè)共同特征：震源極淺，常常只有幾公里甚至更淺。這使得即便震級(jí)不高，地表震感和局部破壞也可能明顯超出人們對(duì)同級(jí)天然地震的預(yù)期。

三、能管住嗎

結(jié)論是審慎樂(lè)觀的：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以顯著降低，但無(wú)法歸零。

國(guó)際上通行的做法是**"交通燈"管理機(jī)制**——在作業(yè)區(qū)布設(shè)密集地震監(jiān)測(cè)臺(tái)網(wǎng),實(shí)時(shí)跟蹤微震活動(dòng)。綠燈時(shí)正常作業(yè);監(jiān)測(cè)到的震級(jí)或頻度超過(guò)預(yù)設(shè)閾值轉(zhuǎn)為黃燈，降低注入速率與壓力;達(dá)到紅燈閾值則立即停止注入并采取泄壓措施。配合作業(yè)前的斷層探查與避讓、總注入量控制、以及對(duì)周邊居民的信息公開(kāi)，多數(shù)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是可控的。

同時(shí)也需要避免另一種極端——把所有地震都?xì)w咎于工程。這類(lèi)因果判斷需要嚴(yán)格的時(shí)空相關(guān)性、震源深度與作業(yè)層位的匹配、以及機(jī)制上的合理性，三者缺一不可。例如汶川地震是否與紫坪鋪水庫(kù)有關(guān)，學(xué)界曾有討論，但主流研究認(rèn)為該地震主要由龍門(mén)山斷裂帶長(zhǎng)期積累的構(gòu)造應(yīng)力釋放所致；而將其歸因于遠(yuǎn)在數(shù)百公里外的三峽工程，則缺乏地球物理學(xué)依據(jù)。距離、深度和時(shí)間尺度，都是不能跳過(guò)的檢驗(yàn)。

結(jié)語(yǔ)

誘發(fā)地震提醒我們一件事：地下并不是一個(gè)可以隨意改造的惰性空間，而是一套早已處于微妙平衡中的力學(xué)系統(tǒng)。

隨著地?zé)衢_(kāi)發(fā)、碳封存(CCS)、大型水利工程的推進(jìn)，人類(lèi)向地下注入物質(zhì)的規(guī)模只會(huì)越來(lái)越大。在動(dòng)手之前先弄清楚腳下有什么，比事后解釋發(fā)生了什么，成本要低得多。

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