“去美元化”是一場持久戰，更是歷史必然

編者按：“‘去美元化’絕非一場一蹴而就的金融革命，而是一場持續數十年的、涉及全球利益重構的持久戰?！?月25日，中國人民大學重陽金融研究院院長、全球領導力學院院長王文在發表英文評論文章強調，美元霸權將在全球金融經濟秩序重構的過程中逐步、迭代、多層次地消融，最終融入一個更多元、更均衡的國際貨幣體系。現將中文譯文及英文原文發布如下： （中文譯文約3300字，預計閱讀時間10分鐘）

▲報道截圖如上

當下，全球“去美元化”浪潮正從國際思潮走向國家行動，成為當前國際經濟競爭的核心命題之一。

有人期待美元霸權頃刻崩塌，有人仍篤信美元的長期優勢。在筆者看來，“去美元化”絕非一場一蹴而就的金融革命，而是一場持續數十年的、涉及全球利益重構的持久戰，既是美元霸權的自我異化、也是全球經濟格局變遷共同推動的歷史必然。

美元霸權既不會像某些極端預測那樣迅速崩潰，也不會因為其優勢而永恒存在，而將在全球金融經濟秩序重構的過程中逐步、迭代、多層次地消融，最終融入一個更多元、更均衡的國際貨幣體系。

“去美元化”的核心驅動力，源自美元霸權自身的“武器化”與“信用透支”。近年來，美國頻繁將美元當作地緣博弈工具，動輒對他國實施金融制裁，凍結外匯儲備、切斷SWIFT通道、制裁金融機構，本質上是在透支美元的“公共信用”。美元從全球公共產品異化為美國單邊主義工具，使越來越多國家意識到，過度依賴美元意味著金融主權的空心化、經濟安全的脆弱性以及受美國政治決策牽連的系統性風險持續威脅。

2022年俄烏沖突爆發后，美歐凍結俄羅斯3000億美元外匯儲備，并將其主要銀行踢出SWIFT系統，徹底撕下該系統“中立性”的面紗。伊朗、委內瑞拉等國則長期遭受金融封鎖之苦。IMF報告提到，全球已有超過110個國家因擔憂制裁而不同程度地參與“去美元化”安排。

與此同時，美國經濟結構性矛盾加劇，財政赤字高企、債務規模龐大且通脹波動頻繁，不斷削弱美元信譽的根基。2026年5月，美國聯邦債務突破39萬億美元，債務利息支出成為公共財政最大負擔之一，進一步侵蝕美元的“無風險資產”光環。持續的美以伊沖突，疊加石油價格的劇烈波動，進一步動搖石油美元體系的穩定性，推動產油國積極探索非美元結算路徑。美元霸權的自我異化，正從內部瓦解其根基，為“去美元化”提供不可逆的歷史推力。

金磚國家引領的國際金融體系改革，是“去美元化”進程中最具標志性的里程碑。作為覆蓋全球GDP總量37%、擁有10個成員國的新興經濟體合作平臺，金磚國家正系統性搭建獨立于美元體系的金融基礎設施。2026年，金磚支付系統（BRICS Pay）正式上線，整合了巴西Pix、俄羅斯SPFS、中國CIPS等本土支付體系，可實現成員國本幣直接結算，有效繞開SWIFT體系。與此同時，金磚國家正推進開發名為“Unit”的數字儲備資產，由40%黃金與60%成員國貨幣共同構成，旨在打破美元在全球儲備體系中的壟斷地位。

在區域貨幣合作維度，東盟已正式啟動本幣結算計劃；中國先后與巴西、伊拉克等國簽署雙邊本幣結算協議，伊拉克更是首次允許對華貿易采用人民幣結算。當前，中俄貿易本幣結算占比已超95%；沙特對華石油交易的人民幣結算比例達41%，首次超越美元，標志著傳統石油美元同盟出現實質性裂痕。自2026年1月起，伊朗對華石油出口已實現100%人民幣結算。

外匯儲備結構層面，全球央行正持續減持美債、增持黃金與非美元資產。美元在全球外匯儲備中的占比，已從2001年72%的歷史峰值回落至2025年的56.77%，連續12個季度低于60%關口。截至2025年末，全球央行黃金儲備總價值達3.93萬億美元，正式超越海外官方持有的3.88萬億美元美債規模，黃金時隔多年重奪全球第一大官方儲備資產地位。與此同時，人民幣、歐元、日元、英鎊及部分新興市場貨幣的儲備貨幣地位穩步提升。

當前，全球“去美元化”呈現“多點突破、梯次推進、多元并存”的鮮明特征，并表現出“非對抗性、非顛覆性、非單一化”的獨特屬性。

但必須清楚地意識到，這種突破仍是“局部性、漸進性、互補性”的，而非“全局性、顛覆性、替代性”的。

全球范圍內，既未形成“反美元同盟”，也沒有任何國家主張徹底廢除美元，而是各國在自身利益驅動下，逐步從貿易結算、外匯儲備、支付體系、貨幣合作等層面降低對美元的依賴，構建“美元+多元貨幣”的平行體系。

必須承認，當下的美元霸權已滲透至全球經濟的毛細血管。SWIFT數據顯示，2025年12月，美元在國際交易中的占比升至50.5%，創2023年以來最高水平。2026年2月，美元占比仍維持在49.25%，穩居全球第一大支付貨幣。歐元緊隨其后，占比約為22.82%。全球超過90%的大宗商品仍以美元計價，跨國公司大多仍習慣以美元結算。

更重要的是，美國掌控SWIFT系統、全球主要金融機構和國際評級機構，形成對全球金融體系的絕對話語權。任何挑戰美元的國家，都可能面臨金融制裁、資本外流、貨幣貶值、經濟動蕩的連鎖反應。

歷史上，從歐元誕生到日元國際化、再到一些國家的貨幣實驗，均因美元霸權的強大抵抗力而進展緩慢。這種路徑依賴、制度慣性和霸權威懾，決定了“去美元化”不可能在短期內沖刺成功，必然是一場持久戰。

同樣，盡管人民幣國際化穩步推進，2028年有望成為全球第三大支付貨幣，但與美元、歐元的差距依然顯著。

中國在“去美元化”進程中處于“參與者、推動者、建設者”的角色，而非“顛覆者、挑戰者、領導者”。

這個理性定位，決定了我們必須以長遠視角行穩致遠。中國從不尋求“去美元化”的激進目標，而是致力于推動國際貨幣體系多元化，建設更公平、包容、穩定的全球金融新秩序。這符合所有國家的共同利益。

對中國而言，推動“去美元化”關鍵在于三項任務：一是加速能源轉型，減少對石油貿易的路徑依賴，從根本上削弱石油美元的基礎。包括大力發展可再生能源、儲能和智能電網，提高能源自給率，降低交通領域對石油的剛性需求，提升能源安全和經濟自主權。

二是穩步推進人民幣國際化，構建本幣結算網絡，打破美元支付壟斷。包括擴大雙邊本幣結算協議的覆蓋范圍，完善CIPS系統，推動mBridge落地，提升人民幣在貿易、投資和儲備中的使用比例，讓人民幣成為全球多元貨幣格局的重要一極。

三是深化多邊合作，依托金磚、上合組織、東盟等多邊機制，凝聚“去美元化”的國際共識，共同建設多元化國際貨幣體系。

展望未來，“去美元化”進程將在曲折中持續推進，多元貨幣格局的形成乃是歷史的必然趨勢。2035年，美元霸權將得到進一步削弱，人民幣國際地位將顯著提升，成為全球重要的儲備貨幣、支付貨幣和投資貨幣。

但歐元區內部政治經濟分化、新興市場幣值不穩、全球金融市場對美元的路徑依賴，都決定了多元貨幣體系的形成需要數十年的積累與調適，難以一蹴而就。全球貨幣格局將呈現“美元主導、多元并存”的特征，美元仍將是世界第一大貨幣。

國際貨幣體系的終極形態，不是單一貨幣的霸權，而是多元貨幣的平衡共處。這需要世界各國的共同努力，更需要時間的檢驗和歷史的評判。

英文原文

De-dollarisation: A Historical Inevitability in a Protracted Game

WANG Wen

Currently, the global wave of "de-dollarisation" is moving from international thought to national actions, becoming one of the core themes of international economic competition.

Some expect the dollar's hegemony to collapse rapidly; others still believe in the enduring advantage of the dollar. In my view, de-dollarisation is by no means a financial revolution that can be achieved overnight, but rather a protracted game spanning decades and involving the restructuring of global interests. It is a historical inevitability driven by both the alienation of the dollar hegemony itself and changes in the global economic landscape.

Dollar hegemony will neither collapse as quickly as some extreme predictions suggest, nor will it exist eternally due to its advantages. Instead, it will gradually, iteratively, and in a multifaceted way, melt away in the reshaping of the global financial and economic order.

The core driving force of de-dollarisation stems from the "weaponisation" and "credit overdraft" of the dollar hegemony itself. In recent years, the United States has frequently used the dollar as a geopolitical tool, readily imposing financial sanctions on other countries, freezing foreign exchange reserves, cutting off SWIFT channels, and sanctioning financial institutions. Essentially, this is overdrafting the "public credit" of the dollar. The transformation of the US dollar from a global public good into a unilateral tool of the United States has made more and more countries realise that over-reliance on the dollar means the hollowing out of financial sovereignty, vulnerability to economic security, and the constant threat of systemic risks due to US political decisions.

Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the US and Europe froze $300 billion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves and removed its major banks from SWIFT, completely shattering the system's facade of "neutrality". Countries like Iran and Venezuela have long suffered from financial blockades. According to an IMF report, more than 110 countries worldwide have participated in de-dollarisation arrangements to varying degrees due to concerns about sanctions.

Meanwhile, structural contradictions in the US economy have intensified, with high fiscal deficits, massive debt, and frequent inflation fluctuations, continuously weakening the foundation of the dollar's credibility. In May 2026, the US federal debt surpassed $39 trillion, with debt interest payments becoming one of the biggest burdens on public finances, further eroding the dollar's "risk-free asset" aura. The ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflicts, coupled with volatile oil prices, further undermine the stability of the petrodollar system, prompting oil-producing countries to actively explore non-dollar settlement pathways. The self-alienation of US dollar hegemony is undermining its foundations from within, providing an irreversible historical impetus for de-dollarisation.

The international financial reforms promoted by the BRICS countries represent the most solid milestone in de-dollarisation. As a cluster of emerging economies covering 37% of global GDP and comprising 10 member countries, the BRICS countries are preparing to systematically build a financial infrastructure independent of the US dollar. In 2026, the BRICS Payment System (BRICS Pay) was launched, integrating payment systems from Brazil's Pix, Russia's SPFS, and China's CIPS, enabling direct settlement in member countries' local currencies, bypassing SWIFT. Simultaneously, the BRICS countries are developing "Unit", a digital reserve asset composed of 40% gold and 60% member currencies, challenging the US dollar's reserve monopoly.

At the level of regional monetary cooperation, ASEAN has launched a local currency settlement plan. China has signed local currency settlement agreements with Brazil, Iraq, and other countries, with Iraq allowing RMB settlement for trade with China for the first time. The proportion of local currency settlement in Sino-Russian trade exceeds 95%. Saudi Arabia's RMB settlement ratio for oil transactions with China reached 41%, surpassing the US dollar for the first time, marking a crack in the petrodollar alliance. Since January 2026, Iran has settled 100% of its oil exports to China in RMB.

In the realm of foreign exchange reserves, global central banks have continued to reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds and increase their holdings of gold and non-dollar assets. The proportion of dollar reserves has fallen from a peak of 72% in 2001 to 56.77% in 2025, remaining below 60% for 12 consecutive quarters. By 2025, the total value of gold reserves held by central banks worldwide will reach $3.93 trillion, officially surpassing the $3.88 trillion in US Treasury bonds held by overseas official entities. Gold has reclaimed its position as the world's largest reserve asset for the first time. Meanwhile, the reserve status of the RMB, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, and some emerging market currencies has steadily increased.

Currently, global de-dollarisation exhibits distinct characteristics of "multi-point breakthroughs, gradual progress, and diversified coexistence," and demonstrates unique features of being "non-confrontational, non-disruptive, and non-singular".

However, we must be clearly aware that these breakthroughs are still "partial, gradual, and complementary," rather than "global, disruptive, and substitutive".

Globally, no "anti-dollar alliance" has formed, nor has any country advocated for the complete abolition of the dollar. Instead, driven by self-interest, countries are gradually reducing their reliance on the dollar in areas such as trade settlement, foreign exchange reserves, payment systems, and monetary cooperation, building a parallel system of "dollar + multiple currencies."

We must acknowledge that the current dollar hegemony has permeated the capillaries of the global economy. According to SWIFT data, in December 2025, the dollar's share in international transactions rose to 50.5%, the highest level since 2023. By February 2026, the dollar's share remained at 49.25%, firmly holding its position as the world's largest payment currency. The euro followed closely behind, accounting for approximately 22.82%. Over 90% of global commodities are still priced in dollars, and most multinational corporations are accustomed to dollar settlements.

More importantly, the United States controls the SWIFT system, major global financial institutions, and international rating agencies, forming absolute dominance over the global financial system.

"Any country challenging the dollar could face a chain reaction of financial sanctions, capital outflows, currency devaluation, and economic turmoil."

Historically, from the birth of the euro to the internationalisation of the yen, and the currency experiments of some countries, progress has been slow due to the strong resistance of the dollar's hegemony. This path dependence, institutional inertia, and the deterrent effect of hegemonic power determine that de-dollarisation cannot be a short-term sprint, and will inevitably be a protracted battle.

While the internationalisation of the RMB is progressing steadily, and it is expected to become the world's third-largest payment currency by 2028, the gap with the dollar and the euro remains significant.

China's position in the de-dollarisation process is that of a "participant, promoter, and builder", not a "disruptor, challenger, or leader".

This rational positioning dictates that we must proceed steadily with a long-term perspective. China never seeks the radical goal of "de-dollarisation", but is committed to promoting the diversification of the international monetary system and building a more equitable, inclusive, and stable global financial order, which is in the common interest of all countries.

For China, advancing de-dollarisation hinges on three key tasks: First, accelerating energy transition and reducing path dependence on oil trade to fundamentally weaken the petrodollar's foundation. This involves vigorously developing renewable energy, energy storage, and smart grids to increase energy self-sufficiency, reduce the rigid demand for oil in the transportation sector, and enhance energy security and economic independence.

Second, steadily promoting the internationalisation of the RMB, building a local currency settlement network, and breaking the dollar's payment monopoly. This includes expanding the scope of bilateral local currency settlement agreements, improving the CIPS system, promoting the implementation of mBridge, increasing the proportion of RMB used in trade, investment, and reserves, and making the RMB an important pillar of the global multi-currency system.

Third, deepening multilateral cooperation, relying on multilateral mechanisms such as BRICS, the SCO, and ASEAN, building consensus on de-dollarisation, and jointly constructing a diversified international monetary system.

Looking ahead, the de-dollarisation process will continue to advance amidst twists and turns, and the formation of a diversified monetary system is an inevitable historical trend. By 2035, the dollar's hegemony will be further weakened, and the RMB's international status will be significantly enhanced, becoming an important global reserve currency, payment currency, and investment currency.

But political and economic divisions within the Eurozone, the instability of emerging market currencies, and the global financial market's path dependence on the dollar all dictate that the formation of a multi-currency system requires decades of accumulation and adjustment, and cannot be achieved overnight. The global monetary landscape will exhibit characteristics of "dollar dominance and diversified coexistence", and the US dollar will remain the world's primary currency.

The ultimate form of the international monetary system is not the hegemony of a single currency, but the balanced coexistence of multiple currencies. This requires the joint efforts of all countries, and even more so, the test of time and history.

▲點擊圖片可購買

歡迎

加入人大重陽社群

為增進與粉絲們的互動，讓大家有更好的交流體驗，人大重陽建立了“企業”“學術”兩大社群，歡迎感興趣的朋友掃描上方二維碼添加人大重陽工作人員的微信（rdcy2013sph）備注姓名、單位、職務及想加入的群聊，審核通過后工作人員會將您拉入群內。

// 人大重陽

RDCY

中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立于2013年1月19日，是重陽投資向中國人民大學捐贈并設立教育基金運營的主要資助項目。

作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高級研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4個中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關系、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。

別忘了“點贊”+“轉發”