Mehri Madarshahi：武器化相互依存時代下的能源與氣候變化

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【導讀】2026年夏季，西歐多國氣溫突破40°C，法國因核電站冷卻問題被迫停機，英國正逼近1976年創下的高溫紀錄。極端天氣已不再是遙遠的預警，而是正在發生的日常。然而，與氣候危機日益緊迫形成鮮明對照的，是旨在應對全球變暖的能源轉型，正與一個日益碎片化的地緣政治世界迎頭相撞。

華南理工大學公共政策研究院（IPP）榮譽教授梅赫里·馬達爾沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）在本文中指出，能源轉型的真正挑戰，并非技術替代的速度，而是轉型所發生于其中的國際體系的性質。舊的能源秩序圍繞對油田、管道和海上航線的控制而建立；新興的能源秩序則日益圍繞對關鍵礦產、制造能力、供應鏈和數字基礎設施等網絡的掌控而展開。權力邏輯未變，權力地理已然改寫。在她看來，氣候安全不同于傳統安全——它無法通過支配他人來獲取，只能通過減少共同脆弱性來實現。文章最終追問：人類能否超越化石能源時代所造就的地緣政治習慣？這個問題，或許比能源轉型本身更能定義我們時代的走向。

武器化相互依賴時代下的能源與氣候變化

Energy and Climate Change in an Age of Weaponized Interdependence

本文作者：Mehri Madarshahi（梅赫里·馬達爾沙希）

IPP榮譽教授、聯合國教科文組織下屬國際創意和可持續發展中心（ICCSD）顧問委員會成員

引言

Introduction

世界正在改變為現代文明提供動力的能源來源，但世界尚未改變支配這些能源來源的政治邏輯。

The world is changing the sources of energy that power modern civilisation, but it has not yet changed the political logic that governs them.

本周，法國、西班牙、意大利和英國等歐洲部分地區的氣溫預計將超過40°C，促使多國政府發布罕見的"紅色極端高溫全國嚴重天氣預警"，意味著生命和基礎設施面臨風險。法國氣溫剛達到42°C，導致數百所法國學校關閉，為老年人設立避難所，并因冷卻問題關閉了核電站。

This week, temperatures in parts of Europe including France, Spain, Italy and England are likely to reach over 40°C, prompting many governments to issue a rare "red extreme heat national severe weather warning" signifying risk to life and infrastructure. France's temperature just reached 42°C, resulting in closures of hundreds of French schools, establishing shelters for the elderly, and shutdowns of nuclear power plants because of cooling issues.

由于法國高溫天氣持續，6月23日埃菲爾鐵塔運營方宣布，為保障游客和工作人員安全，埃菲爾鐵塔于23日下午提前關閉。法國氣象局目前將54個省級行政區劃列為高溫紅色預警區域，約占該國面積的一半。新華社記者 鄔惠我 攝

在英國，當前的熱浪似乎將打破1976年6月創下的35.6°C的紀錄——當時水資源短缺、農作物歉收和眾多死亡事件迫使政府設立干旱事務部長。這場干旱的50周年正值一個令人恐懼的未來快進式預演。一連串專家借1976年干旱50周年之機發出警告：道路融化、電力線路故障、野火、供應鏈中斷、水庫干涸，以及專為蓄熱而設計的磚砌建筑變成烤爐。

In England, the current heatwave looks to shatter the 35.6°C record that was set in June 1976, when water shortages, failed harvests and many deaths forced the government to create a minister for drought. This 50th anniversary of that drought is a terrifying fast-forward into a sweltering future. A parade of experts used the 1976 anniversary to warn of melting roads, failing power lines, wildfires, disrupted supply chains, empty reservoirs, and brick buildings—designed to retain heat—turning into ovens.

"倫敦不僅在變暖——它簡直在被烘烤。" "London isn't just warming—it is cooking."

周二，聯合國秘書長在倫敦氣候行動周上發表講話，呼吁世界各國以更大的緊迫感應對全球變暖，當時氣溫正于6月刷新紀錄。對健康、交通、能源和供水的影響已有記錄。

Speaking at London Climate Action Week on Tuesday, the United Nations Secretary-General called for the world to act with greater urgency to address global warming as temperatures were reaching a new record in June. Severe impacts on health, transport, energy and water supplies are being recorded.

如今，西歐大部分地區都處于高溫炙烤之中，超過一半的南歐地區處于紅色警戒狀態。在世界各地，氣候災害正變得更加頻繁、更具破壞性和代價更高昂。

Today, much of Western Europe is sweltering in hot conditions, with more than half of Southern Europe under red alert. Around the world, climate disasters are becoming more frequent, more destructive and more costly.

聯合國秘書長古特雷斯6月23日在倫敦氣候行動周發表講話指出，世界正同時面臨氣候危機和能源危機，而驅動這兩場危機的是同一種力量——化石燃料。他呼吁各國快速、公平地向清潔能源轉型，同時加強適應能力、韌性建設和氣候公正，以應對不斷升級的全球挑戰。圖：聯合國

《巴黎氣候協定》簽署后，從化石燃料（全球變暖的主要成因）向可持續能源的轉型被視為一個歷史性轉折點。當時普遍的假設是，用可再生能源技術替代化石燃料，不僅會減少溫室氣體排放，還會逐漸削弱長期圍繞石油和天然氣形成的地緣政治競爭。

Following the Paris Climate Agreement, the energy transition from fossil fuels—as the main causes of global warming—to sustainable sources was viewed as a historic turning point. The prevailing assumption was that replacing fossil fuels with renewable technologies would not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions but gradually weaken the geopolitical rivalries that had long surrounded oil and gas.

十年之后，這一假設或許需要重新校準。

A decade later, this assumption may require recalibration.

自那時以來，世界取得了重大技術進展。可再生能源迅速擴張，清潔技術變得更具競爭力，脫碳仍是全球氣候戰略的核心。然而，這些進展與一種截然不同的政治現實并存：地緣政治競爭加劇、經濟碎片化和相互依賴日益被用作戰略杠桿。

Since then, the world has made significant technological progress. Renewable energy has expanded rapidly, clean technologies have become more competitive, and decarbonisation remains central to global climate strategies. Yet these advances have occurred alongside a very different political reality: intensifying geopolitical competition, economic fragmentation, and the increasing use of interdependence as a source of strategic leverage.

因此，當今世界面臨的挑戰不僅僅是能源轉型的速度，更是覆蓋這一轉型進程的國際體系的性質。

The challenges facing the world today are, therefore, not simply the speed of the energy transition, but the nature of the international system in which that transition is unfolding.

舊的能源秩序是圍繞對化石資源的控制而建立的：油田、天然氣儲量、管道和海上航線。新興的能源秩序則日益圍繞對網絡的控制而建立：關鍵礦產、制造能力、技術、供應鏈、數據系統和基礎設施。

The old energy order was built around control of fossil resources: oil fields, gas reserves, pipelines, and maritime routes.The emerging energy order is increasingly built around control of networks: critical minerals, manufacturing capacity, technologies, supply chains, data systems, and infrastructure.

值得注意的是：權力的地理格局正在改變，但權力的邏輯卻驚人地持續存在。

Important to note: the geography of power is changing, but the logic of power remains remarkably persistent.

這構成了當今時代的核心悖論。氣候變化需要前所未有的合作，因為大氣風險、極端天氣、移民壓力、糧食不安全和生態破壞無法被限制在國境之內。然而，旨在應對這些風險的轉型，卻發生在各國日益優先考慮安全、自主和戰略優勢的時刻。

This creates the defining paradox of the current era. Climate change requires unprecedented cooperation because atmospheric risks, extreme weather, migration pressures, food insecurity, and ecological disruption cannot be contained within national borders. Yet the transition designed to address these risks is occurring at a time when nations increasingly prioritise security, autonomy, and strategic advantage.

世界不僅僅是從化石燃料轉向可再生能源。它正從一個以對資源的控制為標志的時代，走向一個日益由對技術、網絡和系統的控制所塑造的時代。

The world is not simply moving from fossil fuels to renewable energy. It is moving from an era defined by control over resources into one increasingly shaped by control over technologies, networks, and systems.

除非能源的治理方式隨其技術一同改變，否則人類將冒著在綠色經濟中重現化石能源時代諸多脆弱性和競爭的風險，甚至倒退到20世紀初的境地。

Unless the governance of energy changes alongside the technology of energy, humanity risks reproducing in the green economy many of the vulnerabilities and rivalries that defined the fossil-fuel age, and may risk regressing to where it was at the beginning of the 20th century.

2023年4月11日，位于德國下薩克森州的埃姆斯蘭核電站。圖：新華社

從《巴黎協定》到碎片化：合作型轉型的瓦解

From Paris to Fragmentation: The Collapse of a Cooperative Transition

《巴黎協定》不僅僅代表一項環境承諾。它反映了一種信念：氣候變化可以成為新型全球合作的基礎。盡管存在政治分歧，各國似乎認識到，全球性風險需要集體應對方案。

The Paris Agreement represented more than an environmental commitment. It reflected a belief that climate change could become a foundation for a new form of global cooperation. Despite political differences, states appeared to recognise that planetary risks required collective solutions.

《巴黎協定》簽署后的幾年增強了這種樂觀情緒。可再生能源迅速擴張，技術創新加速，金融市場擁抱氣候目標，各國政府日益將脫碳納入國家發展戰略。

The years following Paris strengthened this optimism. Renewable energy expanded rapidly, technological innovation accelerated, financial markets embraced climate objectives, and governments increasingly incorporated decarbonisation into national strategies.

然而，這一合作勢頭遭遇了徹底改變的地緣政治環境。

Yet this cooperative momentum encountered a fundamentally changed geopolitical environment.

烏克蘭戰爭、中東不穩定、波斯灣日益加劇的緊張局勢、大國之間的競爭，以及對經濟安全日益增長的關切，共同改變了能源政策的含義。能源不再主要通過環境轉型的視角來看待，而是重新回到國家安全考量的中心。

The war in Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, rising tensions in the Persian Gulf, competition between major powers, and growing concerns over economic security transformed the meaning of energy policy. Energy is no longer viewed primarily through the lens of environmental transformation; rather, it has returned to the centre of national security calculations.

各國政府發現，隨著全球化的發展，脆弱性并未消失——對外部供應商、關鍵基礎設施、海上走廊和戰略技術的依賴，可能成為政治壓力的來源。

Governments discovered that, with globalisation, vulnerability did not disappear. Dependence on external suppliers, critical infrastructure, maritime corridors, and strategic technologies could become sources of political pressure.

因此，轉型進入了一個矛盾的階段：恰恰在各國走向更大戰略競爭之時，氣候變化卻需要更深層次的合作。

The transition therefore entered a paradoxical phase:climate change required deeper cooperation precisely when states were moving toward greater strategic competition.

2025年11月10日，《聯合國氣候變化框架公約》第三十次締約方大會（COP30）開幕式在巴西北部城市貝倫召開。本屆大會聚焦多項重要氣候議題，呼吁全球攜手為應對氣候危機尋找共同解決方案，加速減少排放，增強氣候韌性，推動包容、公正的轉型。圖：新華社

能源作為戰略的回歸

The Return of Energy as Strategy

近期事件挑戰的第二個假設是："隨著可再生能源技術擴張，化石燃料將逐漸失去地緣政治重要性。"

The second assumption challenged by recent events was that fossil fuels would gradually lose geopolitical importance as renewable technologies expanded.

恰恰相反，石油和天然氣反而保持了其戰略作用，且日益增強。

Instead, and on the contrary, oil and gas have more and more retained their strategic role.

這種持續存在并不僅僅是經濟慣性的結果。化石燃料仍深嵌于權力體系之中：軍事規劃、工業生產、全球貿易和國際影響力。

This persistence is not simply the result of economic inertia. Fossil fuels remain embedded within systems of power: military planning, industrial production, global trade, and international influence.

對生產的控制只是這種權力的一個維度。更重要的是，對能源流動的控制也變得同等重要。

Control over production is only one dimension of this power. Increasingly, control over energy flows has become equally important.

霍爾木茲海峽的局勢證明了這一轉變。它的重要性不僅僅來自周圍分布的石油儲量，更來自其作為全球依賴關鍵節點的地位。威脅、中斷或保護能源流動的能力，賦予各國超越其經濟規模的戰略影響力。

The Strait of Hormuz demonstrates this transformation. Its importance does not come merely from the oil reserves surrounding it, but from its position as a critical point of global dependency. The ability to threaten, disrupt, or protect flows gives states strategic influence beyond their economic size.

因此，能源權力已經演變。

Energy power has, therefore, evolved.

二十世紀的核心問題是：誰控制資源？二十一世紀的問題則是：誰控制脆弱性？

Who controls the resources? That was the main question asked in the twentieth century. The twenty-first-century question is: Who controls the vulnerabilities?

石油不再僅僅是一種商品。它是涉及制裁、供應鏈、基礎設施和戰略準入的更廣泛影響力架構的一部分。

Oil is no longer only a commodity. It is part of a wider architecture of influence involving sanctions, supply chains, infrastructure, and strategic access.

2026年4月8日，民眾在伊朗首都德黑蘭革命廣場參加集會。廣場的大幅宣傳畫上文字內容是“霍爾木茲海峽仍然關閉 整個波斯灣都是我們的獵場”。圖：新華社

超越化石燃料：綠色經濟的地緣政治

Beyond Fossil Fuels: The Geopolitics of the Green Economy

因此，能源轉型最大的誤解并不在于相信可再生能源將終結地緣政治。而是在于假設化石能源時代創造的地緣政治結構，可以原封不動地移植到清潔能源時代。

The greatest misconception of the energy transition is, therefore, not the belief that renewable energy will end geopolitics. Rather, it is the assumption that the geopolitical structures created during the fossil-fuel era can simply be transferred unchanged into the age of clean energy.

擺脫化石燃料的轉型，代表了能源與權力之間關系的深刻轉變。一個多世紀以來，對石油和天然氣儲量、生產能力、運輸路線和海上咽喉要道的控制，塑造了各國的戰略考量。能源安全很大程度上被定義為獲取集中于特定地理區域的稀缺資源。

The transition away from fossil fuels represents a profound transformation in the relationship between energy and power. For more than a century, control over oil and gas reserves, production capacity, transportation routes, and maritime chokepoints shaped the strategic calculations of states. Energy security was largely defined by access to scarce resources concentrated in specific geographical regions.

新興的綠色經濟改變了這一等式。

The emerging green economy changes this equation.

可再生能源可以減少對持續開采的燃料的依賴，但它引入了一個圍繞技術、創新、工業能力、關鍵礦產、電池生產、電網和數字基礎設施構建的全新戰略格局。問題不再僅僅是"誰控制能源資源"，而是"誰控制生產、儲存、分配和管理能源的系統"。

Renewable energy could reduce dependence on continuously extracted fuels, but it introduces a new strategic landscape built around technology, innovation, industrial capacity, critical minerals, battery production, electricity grids, and digital infrastructure. The question is no longer only who controls energy resources, but who controls the systems that produce, store, distribute, and manage energy.

美國與中國之間的競爭彰顯了這一歷史性轉變。它們之間的競爭不僅僅是對氣候領導地位的爭奪，更是對誰能塑造二十一世紀工業架構的角力。在可再生技術、先進制造、人工智能和能源創新領域的領先地位，將影響經濟競爭力、技術影響力和全球權力。

The competition between the United States and China illustrates this historic transformation. Their rivalry is not simply a contest over climate leadership; it is a struggle over who will shape the industrial architecture of the twenty-first century. Leadership in renewable technologies, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and energy innovation will influence economic competitiveness, technological influence, and global power.

然而，未來的能源秩序不能僅通過大國競爭來理解。對全球南方（Global South）的許多國家而言，這一新的能源格局既帶來了前所未有的機遇，也帶來了顯著的脆弱性。富含關鍵礦產和可再生能源潛力的國家，可能獲得新的戰略重要性，吸引投資并成為全球供應鏈的重要參與者。但如果沒有工業發展、技術轉讓和更深入地參與價值創造，許多國家仍面臨風險——它們可能僅僅是原材料的供應者，而非全球經濟轉型的合作伙伴。

Yet the future energy order cannot be understood only through the rivalry of major powers.For much of the Global South, this new energy landscape creates both unprecedented opportunities and significant vulnerabilities. Countries rich in critical minerals and renewable-energy potential may now gain new strategic importance, attracting investment and becoming essential participants in global supply chains. But without industrial development, technology transfer, and greater participation in value creation, many risk remaining suppliers of raw materials rather than partners in the transformation of the global economy.

2025年7月4日，由中國揚州亞星客車公司制造的電動公交車駛離阿根廷布宜諾斯艾利斯電動公交車總站。2025年5月，阿根廷首都布宜諾斯艾利斯開通首條100%電動公交線路，投入為期兩個月試運營的12輛純電動公交車由中國揚州亞星客車公司制造。圖：新華社

危險并不在于綠色轉型本身。危險在于，化石能源時代造成的不平等和依賴模式，可能在一個由不同資源、不同產業和不同行為者構成的新技術框架之下被重現。

The danger is not the green transition itself. The danger is that the inequalities and patterns of dependency created during the fossil-fuel era could be reproduced under a new technological framework with different resources, different industries, and different actors.

要避免這一結果，需要一種更廣義的能源安全觀：它不僅基于對資源的獲取，還基于共享創新、有韌性的供應鏈、能力建設和更具包容性的全球能源治理體系。

Avoiding this outcome requires a broader vision of energy security: one based not only on access to resources, but on shared innovation, resilient supply chains, capacity building, and a more inclusive system of global energy governance.

化石能源時代的教訓不應被遺忘。綠色轉型的目標，不應是在新技術條件下重現舊有的支配模式——關鍵礦產和清潔技術絕不能成為未來的油田和管道。

The lesson of the fossil-fuel era should not be forgotten. The objective of the green transition should not be to reproduce old patterns of dominance under new technological conditions. Critical minerals and clean technologies must not become the oil fields and pipelines of the future.

成功的轉型需要的不僅僅是用可再生能源替代化石燃料。它需要治理本身的轉型——從對控制的競爭，轉向圍繞韌性、多樣化、共享創新和可持續發展的合作。

A successful transition requires more than replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy. It requires a transformation of governance itself—from competition over control to cooperation around resilience, diversification, shared innovation, and sustainable development.

因此，真正的挑戰并不在于世界正在超越化石燃料。挑戰在于，人類能否超越化石能源時代所造就的地緣政治習慣。

The real challenge is therefore not that the world is moving beyond fossil fuels. The challenge is whether humanity can move beyond the geopolitical habits created by the fossil-fuel age.

結論：從能源轉型到治理轉型

Conclusion: From Energy Transition to Governance Transition

毫無疑問，鑒于我們已經跨越的令人警醒的紅線，未來幾十年的偉大成就可能是世界能源系統的轉型。然而，更偉大的挑戰或許是轉型治理能源系統的政治假設。

Without doubt, and given the alarming red lines that we have crossed, the great achievement of the coming decades may be the transformation of the world's energy systems. Yet the greater challenge may be transforming the political assumptions that govern them.

化石能源時代證明，能源從來不僅僅關乎能源本身。石油和天然氣塑造了聯盟、影響了沖突、制造了依賴，并成為各國投射經濟和地緣政治權力的工具。

The fossil-fuel era demonstrated that energy has never been only about energy. Oil and gas shaped alliances, influenced conflicts, created dependencies, and became instruments through which states projected economic and geopolitical power.

可再生時代提供了一種不同未來的可能性，但它并不會自動保證這一未來的實現。一個由清潔能源驅動的世界，仍可能成為一個在關鍵礦產、技術領導地位、工業能力和戰略供應鏈的競爭中被分裂的世界。

The renewable era offers the possibility of a different future, but it does not automatically guarantee one. A world powered by clean energy can still become a world divided by competition over critical minerals, technological leadership, industrial capacity, and strategic supply chains.

從當今地緣政治緊張局勢中浮現的核心教訓是：脆弱性本身已成為一種權力來源。各國日益競爭的不僅僅是對資源的控制，更是對他人所依賴的系統的控制——即能源流動、技術、金融、基礎設施和供應網絡。

The central lesson emerging from today's geopolitical tensions is thatvulnerability itself has become a source of power.States increasingly compete not only to control resources, but to control the systems on which others depend—namely, energy flows, technologies, finance, infrastructure, and supply networks.

這就是"武器化相互依賴"的挑戰。

This is the challenge of weaponized interdependence.

國際能源署6月16日發布報告說，伊朗戰事引發的能源危機給東南亞地區能源安全敲響警鐘。圖為人們在菲律賓奎松市的一家加油站排隊加油。圖源：新華社

然而，氣候變化代表著一種根本不同類型的威脅。它無法通過支配他人來應對，因為沒有任何國家——無論其經濟實力、技術能力或地緣政治影響力如何——能夠僅憑自身確保免受全球性不穩定的影響。

Nevertheless, climate change represents a fundamentally different category of threat. It cannot be addressed through dominance over others, because no nation, regardless of its economic strength, technological capacity, or geopolitical influence, can secure itself from planetary instability alone.

氣候安全不依賴于控制脆弱性，而依賴于減少共同脆弱性。

Climate security depends not on controlling vulnerability, but on reducing shared vulnerability.

因此，能源轉型的下一階段也必須成為治理的轉型。

The next stage of the energy transition must therefore also become a transition in governance.

今天，國際社會面臨的問題，不再僅僅是世界能以多快的速度替代化石燃料，而是人類能否建立一個以韌性而非依賴、合作而非強迫、集體安全而非戰略競爭為基礎的新型能源秩序。因此，未來不應僅由驅動我們經濟的動力來決定，而應取決于我們能否改變權力本身的邏輯。

Today, the question facing the international community is no longer only how quickly the world can replace fossil fuels, but whether humanity can build a new energy order based on resilience rather than dependency, cooperation rather than coercion, and collective security rather than strategic rivalry. Consequently, the future should not be determined only by what powers our economies, but should be determined by whether we can change the logic of power itself.

在二十一世紀，權力日益基于"誰控制他人所依賴的系統"，而不僅僅是"誰擁有資源"。這就是武器化相互依賴的時代。

In the twenty-first century, power is increasingly based not only on who possesses resources, but on who controls the systems upon which others depend. This is the era of weaponized interdependence.

如果沒有所需的轉型，綠色轉型或許會改變能源的來源，但不會改變圍繞能源的沖突。

Without the required transformation, the green transition may change the sources of energy—but not the conflicts surrounding them.

梅赫里·馬達爾沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）

華南理工大學公共政策研究院（IPP）榮譽教授、聯合國教科文組織下屬國際創意和可持續發展中心（ICCSD）顧問委員會成員

Honorary Professorof The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) , South China University of Technology (SCUT) ;

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